New federal election modelling suggests Pauline Hanson’s One Nation could emerge as a major force in Australian politics, potentially winning between 54 and 63 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Liberal-National Coalition could be reduced to as few as four seats.
According to the latest Capital Brief/DemosAU poll, One Nation leads the primary vote with 30 per cent support, ahead of Labor on 27 per cent. The Coalition trails on 18 per cent, while the Greens sit on 13 per cent and independents and minor parties account for the remaining 12 percent.
Using the poll data, DemosAU conducted 20,000 election simulations. The modelling indicates Labor would still be best positioned to form government, winning between 71 and 81 seats, despite trailing One Nation in primary vote support. One Nation’s projected seat count could make it the official opposition, marking a dramatic shift in Australia’s political landscape.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said Labor remains the most likely party to govern, but warned that further gains by One Nation or a decline in Labor support could alter the outcome.
The survey, conducted between June 16 and 18 among 1,497 voters, found cost-of-living pressures remain Australians’ top concern, followed by housing affordability and immigration.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continued to lead the preferred prime minister rankings with 35 percent support, ahead of Pauline Hanson on 28 per cent and Angus Taylor on 19 percent.
The poll also tested whether former prime minister Tony Abbott could revive Coalition support if he returned as parliamentary leader. The results showed little change, highlighting the challenge facing the Coalition in regaining conservative voters.
While analysts caution that the modelling represents a scenario rather than a firm election prediction, the findings suggest One Nation’s growing support could significantly reshape federal politics if maintained through the next election.