Polls Kos Samaras from RedBridge is right that Australian politics is no longer just a two-party contest. However, his focus on One Nation mainly as a problem for the Coalition misses a bigger development: the party may now be gaining ground in Labor’s traditional suburban base.
One Nation first grew by taking votes from the Liberals and Nationals in regional areas. It appealed mostly to older, conservative voters who felt the Coalition no longer represented them. That part of its rise is well known.
But a second and more serious shift may now be happening. One Nation is increasingly appealing to voters in Labor-leaning areas, especially in outer suburbs. These include trade workers, union households, mortgage holders, renters, and middle-income families who once strongly supported Labor.
These voters are not necessarily driven by racism or culture-war issues. Instead, many are concerned about everyday pressures like rising rents, expensive mortgages, higher power bills, long hospital waits, crime, traffic congestion, crowded schools, and the feeling that life is becoming harder.
Because of these frustrations, some are starting to blame Labor. The situation is more complex than simple political labels like “urban educated Labor voters” versus “regional conservative voters.” In reality, financial stress is affecting people across all backgrounds in the outer suburbs.
Migration is also part of the debate. Many voters are not anti-migrant, but they feel population growth is happening faster than improvements in housing, transport, healthcare, and schools. This creates visible strain in their daily lives, such as traffic jams, housing shortages, and overloaded services.
Labor risks misunderstanding its support base if it assumes all multicultural or diverse communities will automatically continue voting for it. Many migrant families are also affected by cost-of-living pressures, service shortages, and rising living costs.
Historically, Labor brought together union workers, migrants, public sector employees, renters, and younger voters. But these groups do not always share the same priorities anymore.
One Nation sees an opportunity in this divide. It does not need to win a majority of votes—it only needs to take a small number of disaffected Labor voters in key suburbs to influence election results.
While the Coalition faces its own challenges, Labor’s risk is less visible its support may slowly weaken in working-class suburban areas without a dramatic collapse.
Voters who once supported Labor for jobs, fairness, and stability are now questioning whether their quality of life is improving. Some feel ignored as costs rise and services struggle to keep up.
The key warning is that when voters feel financial pressure and distrust government, they may not simply switch between Labor and Liberal. Instead, they may move to minor parties like One Nation, independents, or stop voting altogether.
Overall, One Nation’s growth is no longer just a problem for the Coalition. It may increasingly be a challenge for Labor in its traditional heartland of working-class suburban Australia.